Area of dispute in Kashmir (courtesy of New York Times)
BANDIPORE, Kashmir — The new battle between India and Pakistan comes not from ethnic violence, but from water flowing down from beautiful mountain glaciers in the high Himalayan valley in the Indian-controlled side of Kashmir, to farmers’ fields in Pakistan’s agricultural heartland. I can say without a doubt that this is a constant topic of “water-cooler” type conversation among the academic as well as the common community. Indian workers in Kashmir are racing to build an expensive hydroelectric dam in a remote valley near here – one of many India plans to build over the next ten years to feed its rapidly growing economy. But are they illegal?
Lydia Polgreen of the New York Times reports that in Pakistan, the project raises fears that India, its upriver nation, would have the power to manipulate the water flowing to its agriculture industry which is a quarter of its already poor economy and employs half its population. But how can they stop it? Water has become a growing source of tension in many parts of the world between nations striving for growth (also know as transboundary water conflicts). Across the Himalayas, China’s own dam projects have piqued India, a rival for regional, and even global, power.
But the fight here adds a new segment of volatility to one of the most disrespected relationships anywhere, – one between nuclear-armed nations who have already fought three wars.
With their populations rapidly expanding, water is critical to both nations. According to water experts, Pakistan contains the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system. The rivers that traverse Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province and the heart of its agriculture industry are the country’s lifeline, and the dispute over their use goes to the heart of its fears about India.
For India, the hydroelectric projects are vital to securing Himalayan water to fill in the serious energy shortfalls that hurt its economy. Surprisingly, despite being a growing economic power, about 40 percent of India’s population is off the power grid, and lack of electricity which hampers industry. For example, as I sit here today in Ahmedabad, the sixth largest city in India, the power grid is stable for the most, part but does go out in vital parts of the day affecting everyone from doctors in hospitals to the minister of Gujarat. The Kishenganga project in Kashmir is a crucial part of India’s plans to alleviate issues such as these.
The Kishenganga hydroelectric dam project
The Indian project falls under a 50-year-old treaty that divides the Indus River and its tributaries between both countries. The treaty, the result of a decade of negotiation that ended in 1960, gave Pakistan 80 percent of the waters in the Indus River system, a ratio that nationalists in Pakistan often forget. India, the upriver nation, is permitted to use some of the water for farming, drinking and power generation, as long as it does not store too much.
While the Kishenganga dam is allowed under the treaty, the dispute is over how it should be built and the timely release of water. Pakistan contends that having the drainage at the very base of the dam will allow India to manipulate the water flow when it wants, for example, during a crucial period of a planting season. Water experts say Pakistan does have a legitimate cause for concern. The real issue is timing. If India chooses to fill its dams at a crucial time for Pakistan, it has the potential to ruin a crop. According to hydrologists, if India builds all its planned projects, it could have the capacity of holding up about a month’s worth of river flow during Pakistan’s critical dry season, enough to wreck an entire planting season.
A genuine water shortage in Pakistan, and the country’s inability to store large quantities of water, has only made matters worse, exposing it to any small variation in rainfall or river flow. Pakistan is about to slip into a category of country the United Nations defines as “water scarce.”
The problem here is that the design of the dam requires that much of the water in the Kishenganga River be diverted for much of the year. That will kill off fish and harm the livelihoods of the people living in the Pakistan-side of Kashmir.
However, many people in India believe that Pakistan’s water crisis has little to do with India, and says that the real way to ease it is to introduce water conservation methods and modern farming techniques. In a country where summer temperatures reach 120 degrees, as much as 40 percent of Pakistan’s water is lost before even reaching the roots of the plants, hydrologists say.
As a hydrologist myself, many of these issues would be eased if India and Pakistan talked and shared data on water (obviously this is easier said than done). The United States and Mexico have similar data sharing issues with groundwater usage, but not to the degree of acts of violence. The distrust and antagonism in India and Pakistan is such that bureaucrats have hoarded information, and are secretly gunning to finish projects on either side of the line of control in order to be the first to have an established fact on the ground.
